Case Study
Couples Overconfidence Studies
Various, including William Swann and Michael Gill
Two studies of romantic couples. Chores: both partners in a couple, surveyed independently, each claimed to personally do more household chores than their partner did — a logical impossibility. Sexual history: researchers William Swann and Michael Gill had couples predict how their partner would answer questions about their own sexual history (number of past partners, condom use frequency, typical number of dates before sex), then rate their own confidence in the prediction.
Result: partners were frequently wrong about their predictions, despite reporting high confidence — and confidence, along with the error rate, both increased the longer a couple had been together. See Overconfidence (Above-Average Effect).
Discussed in
- Episode 125 — 125-why-stupid-people-think-they-re-smart